Problems and Opportunities

Yesterday, the Houston Astros won the World Series. But more interestingly for your startup, Mattress Mack won 75 million dollars.

Mattress Mack is actually named Jim McIngvale, and he owns Gallery Furniture, a chain in Houston that started by selling mattress (as you’d imagine), and now sells all sorts of furniture. He - very publicly - bet $10 million dollars at the beginning of the season that the Astros would win the World Series. He got roughly 7.5:1 odds, so he won $75 million.

Why is this interesting for your startup? It’s a prime example of problems and opportunities.

To get momentum, we’ll need to do things that have asymmetric upside. Which means we need to spend a big chunk of time finding and chasing opportunities, not just solving problems. Problems are reactive - fixing things that are broken. The upside is usually capped and modest, and the likelihood of failure is low. Opportunities have tons of upside and high failure rates. Opportunities might only work 10% of the time, but if they amplify our work 100x, they’re well worth it. A few examples in here will be helpful.

Mattress Mack’s bet was an opportunity. First, because of the massive press he got by placing the biggest bet of all time. He almost certainly got more than $10mm worth of press this year.

And second, from the way he structured the bet. He offered to refund any customer who spent at least $3,000 on furniture double their money back if the Astros won the World Series. So, his sales exploded - especially as it became clear how good the Astros were - and if he won the bet, it’d easily cover the money back to very happy customers.

Spend time solving the problems that slow you down. The necessary ones. But also spend time thinking up opportunities. Invest time into them.

If you need help strategizing some opportunities, you’re not alone. It’s not a normal thought process for most of us — it requires practice.